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Here are more details on what J.P. Morganexpects for a recession this year.
Is a Recession Coming?
Most of the inflationary impactis expected to be felt during the second and third quarters.
This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession, the bank noted.
And this is before accounting for the additional hits to gross exports and to investment spending.
What Impact Do Tariffs Have?
J.P. Morgan initially said there was a 60% chance of a recession due to the tariffs,Newsweekreported.
The bank maintained that forecast even after Trump announced a 90-day pause on most U.S. reciprocal tariffs.
In a report, J.P. Morgan specifically citedextraordinarily high tariffs on Chinese goods.
More shocking is the increase in China tariffs to an astounding 125%, the report said.
Who Else Is Forecasting a Recession?
J.P. Morgan economists arent the only ones at the bank towarn of a possible recession.
CEO Jamie Dimon did as well in a recent appearance onFox Business.
I think probably [a recession is] a likely outcome, Dimon said.
Markets arent always right, but sometimes they are right.
Its hard to tell.
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